Year-End 2021 Market Report: The Polar Express

Happy New Year, everyone! The sky has cleared after historic storms closed out 2021 with a thunderous roar, giving us a great snowpack and epic ski conditions. But when will the Tahoe-Truckee real estate market steady its rollicking journey towards the North Pole? Year-End Report

The spirit of Santa Claus has proven itself real for sellers, showering them with virtually instantaneous multiple offers and stratospheric prices. On the flip side, however, market activity is in danger of becoming hypothermic as buyers wander the tundra in search of the elusive northern lights of inventory.

The good news is that pending contracts are within a normal range at present, but may not stay there unless more listings come to market.

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With prices at potentially unsustainable levels and closed sales trending down, we have our fingers crossed that the supply-side can right itself over the course of 2022 (in more than just the real estate industry!). What we don’t want to see is a downturn in total volume, which means less money fueling the local economy from home sales.

It won’t surprise anyone to see that sale prices have been consistently over asking since late spring 2020. If the fourth quarter ’21 trend continues, a return to closing prices just slightly under list may reflect a more rational market with fewer bidding wars.

UPDATE ON BUILDABLE LOT SALES: Although residential lot unit sales have softened slightly from the land-grab mania of 2020, prices continue upward to historic highs.